Form: 8-K

Current report filing

September 29, 2006

EXHIBIT 99.1

Published on September 29, 2006

Exhibit 99.1

[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

STRATEGIC AND FINANCIAL REVIEW

Investor Conference Call
September 29, 2006

[GRAPHICS APPEAR HERE]

This presentation is available
on our web site at www.novelis.com

(C) Novelis Inc. 2006


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

CAUTION ON FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

Statements made in this presentation which describe Novelis' intentions,
expectations, beliefs or predictions may be forward-looking statements within
the meaning of securities laws. Forward-looking statements may include
statements preceded by, followed by, or including the words "believes,"
"expects," "anticipates", "plans," estimates," "projects," "forecasts," or
similar expressions. Examples of such forward-looking statements in this
presentation include, among other matters, our expectation to timely report our
financial results with the SEC, proactively implement tax initiatives, appoint a
new CEO, eliminate or reduce remaining metal price ceiling exposure, continue
de-leveraging, focus on our cost position, align assets to our high-value
portfolio, achieve our projected levels of Shipments, Regional Income (including
both Regional Income before Can Ceiling and Regional Income Less Corporate
Costs), Earnings Before Taxes, Capital Expenditures, Free Cash Flow and other
financial targets for the remainder of 2006 and 2007 and achieve the long term
financial targets for Regional Income less Corporate Costs, Annual Free Cash
Flow, Return on Invested Capital and Debt to EBITDA. Novelis cautions that, by
their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty and that
Novelis' actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied
in such statements. These statements are based on beliefs and assumptions of
Novelis' management, which in turn are based on currently available information.
These assumptions could prove inaccurate. We do not intend, and we disclaim any
obligation, to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise. Factors that could cause actual results
or outcomes to differ from the results expressed or implied by forward-looking
statements include, among other things: the level of our indebtedness and our
ability to generate cash; relationships with, and financial and operating
conditions of, our customers and suppliers; changes in the prices and
availability of aluminum (or premiums associated with such prices) or other raw
materials we use; the effect of metal price ceilings in certain of our sales
contracts; our ability to successfully negotiate with our customers to remove or
limit metal price ceilings in our contracts; the effectiveness of our hedging
activities, including our internal used beverage can and smelter hedges;
fluctuations in the supply of, and prices for, energy in the areas in which we
maintain production facilities; our ability to access financing for future
capital requirements; continuing obligations and other relationships resulting
from our spin-off from Alcan; changes in the relative values of various
currencies; factors affecting our operations, such as litigation, labor
relations and negotiations, breakdown of equipment and other events; economic,
regulatory and political factors within the countries in which we operate or
sell our products, including changes in duties or tariffs; competition from
other aluminum rolled products producers as well as from substitute materials
such as steel, glass, plastic and composite materials; changes in general
economic conditions; our ability to improve and maintain effective internal
control over financial reporting and disclosure controls and procedures in the
future; changes in the fair market value of derivatives; cyclical demand and
pricing within the principal markets for our products as well as seasonality in
certain of our customers' industries; changes in government regulations,
particularly those affecting environmental, health or safety compliance; changes
in interest rates that have the effect of increasing the amounts we pay under
our principal credit agreements and other financing arrangements; the continued
cooperation of certain debtholders and regulatory authorities with respect to
extensions of our 2006 filing deadlines; the development of the most efficient
tax structure for the Company; and the payment of special interest due to our
failure to timely file our SEC reports and the payment of fees in connection
with any related waivers or amendments to our principal debt agreements. The
above list of factors is not exhaustive. Other important risk factors are
included under the caption "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for
the year ended December 31, 2005, as filed with the SEC, and may be discussed in
subsequent filings with the SEC. Further, the risk factors included in our
Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005, are
specifically incorporated by reference into this presentation.

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 2


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

AGENDA

o Strategic Overview

o Financial Overview and Guidance

o Question and Answer Session

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 3


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

NOVELIS STRATEGY
A WORLD-CLASS ALUMINUM CONVERSION BUSINESS

Strong
Differentiated, financial
high value-added results, stable
Advantaged product mix in cash flows
asset position stable markets and balanced
capital
structure

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 4


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

TRANSFORMING NOVELIS

o Establishing strong leadership in finance and risk management
- Replaced CFO and established a stronger financial team

o Minimizing volatility of commodity input costs
- Successfully eliminated price ceiling from certain contracts
- Reduced metal price lag cash volatility

o Improving operational efficiency and product portfolio
- Launched European restructuring
- Increased working capital turns by more than 25%
- Introduced breakthrough Novelis Fusion(TM) technology

o De-leveraging the capital structure
- Reduced debt by approximately $470 million

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 5


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

NEXT STEPS TO ENHANCE SHAREHOLDER VALUE

o Timely reporting of financial results

o Proactive tax planning initiatives

o Appointment of new CEO

o Continue de-leveraging

o Eliminate all remaining price ceiling exposure

o Continue aligning assets to high-value portfolio

o Focus on cost position

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 6


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

AGENDA

o Strategic Overview

o Financial Overview and Guidance

o Question and Answer Session

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 7


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

REPORTING UPDATE

o Timely financial reporting

- May 2006: completed extensive financial restatement and review
process; restated 1Q05 and 2Q05 financials and reported 3Q05 results

- August 2006: filed 2005 10-K

- September 15, 2006: filed 1Q06 10-Q

- By October 20, 2006: file 2Q06 10-Q

o Timely file 2006 10-K under SEC requirements

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 8


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

PRICE CEILING
EXPOSURES AND RISK MITIGATION

NET EXPOSURES
- -------------

o Price ceilings on certain North American contracts:

- 2006 exposure is 125 kilotonnes (kt)

- Projected 2007 exposure is approximately 50 kt

- Beyond 2007, exposure is not expected to exceed 50 kt

- We expect to reduce exposure to 20-30 kt per year

MITIGANTS
- ---------

o Internal hedges reduce risk to metal price exposure:

- Volume from smelters serve as a natural hedge

- Benefit from spreads between UBC and LME prices -- expectations based
on 2006 experience and historical statistical evidence

ACTIONS
- -------

o External hedges: purchase of LME futures and option contracts

o Half of price ceiling volume eliminated at end of 2006

o Aggressively pursuing all options for removal of price ceilings

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 9


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

METAL PRICE LAG
EXPOSURES AND RISK MITIGATION

EXPOSURE
- --------

o Timing differences between purchase of metal, processing and the sale of
finished products

- Metal purchases typically have a 1-month lag

- Metal processing time ranges between 30 to 60 days

- Approximately 20% of business is sold on the basis of a 3- to 6-month
trailing average metal price with most of the remaining business on a
1- to 2-month lag

MITIGANTS
- ---------

o Regional Income can be affected on a monthly basis, but equalizes over time
if prices revert to the mean

ACTIONS
- -------

o Reduced approximately two-thirds of metal price lag cash volatility during
the past 5 weeks through short-term selling of LME futures

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 10


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

REVIEW OF HISTORICAL FINANCIALS

ROLLED PRODUCTS SHIPMENTS (kt)

[CHART APPEARS HERE]


NET SALES ($MM)

[CHART APPEARS HERE]


REGIONAL INCOME LESS CORPORATE COSTS ($MM)

[CHART APPEARS HERE]


FREE CASH FLOW ($MM)

[CHART APPEARS HERE]


Note: See Appendix for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 11


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

DEBT REDUCTION HISTORY

REDUCED TOTAL DEBT BY $468MM SINCE SPIN-OFF (THROUGH 2Q-06)

[CHART APPEARS HERE]

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 12


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

NOVELIS FINANCIAL GUIDANCE
2006 AND 2007 FORECAST



2006E 2007E
------------------------ ------------------------
US$MM, EXCEPT SHIPMENT DATA 2005 LOW HIGH LOW HIGH
- ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------

Shipments (kt)
Rolled Products 2,873 2,960 - 2,980 3,050 - 3,100
Ingot Products 214 180 - 190 180 - 190
--------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
3,087 3,140 - 3,170 3,230 - 3,290
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regional Income before Can Ceiling 660 685 - 703 655 - 700
Can Ceiling, net of hedging (40) (205) - (205) (80) - (75)
Corporate costs (72) (120) - (110) (80) - (70)
--------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Regional Income less Corp Costs 548 360 - 388 495 - 555
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Earnings (Loss) Before Taxes 224 (285) - (240) 35 - 100
Capital Expenditures 178 115 - 110 175 - 165
Free Cash Flow 328 150 - 200 150 - 200
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Assumed Average LME Price ($ / mt) 1,897 2,500 2,500
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Note 1: Excludes special items including potential asset sales.
Note 2: See Appendix for reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 13


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

REGIONAL INCOME (RI)
LESS CORPORATE COSTS BRIDGE

2005 - 2006 ($MM) - MIDPOINT OF GUIDANCE RANGE

[CHART APPEARS HERE]

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 14


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

REGIONAL INCOME (RI)
LESS CORPORATE COSTS BRIDGE (CONT'D)

2006 - 2007 ($MM) - MIDPOINT OF GUIDANCE RANGE

[CHART APPEARS HERE]

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 15


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

NOVELIS FINANCIAL GUIDANCE

METRIC LONG-TERM TARGET
- ------------------------------------ ----------------
EXCLUDING METAL PRICING EFFECTS:

Regional Income less Corporate Costs 7% - 10%

Annual Free Cash Flow (1) >$400MM

Return on Invested Capital (2) >12%

Debt to EBITDA 2.5x - 3.0x

(1) Free Cash Flow = net cash from operating activities - dividends - capital
expenditures - premiums paid to purchase derivatives + net proceeds from
settlement of derivatives.

(2) Return on Invested Capital = After Tax EBIT divided by average book
capitalization.

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 16


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

AGENDA

o Strategic Overview

o Financial Overview and Guidance

o Question and Answer Session

Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 17


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

APPENDIX


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

RECONCILIATION OF REGIONAL INCOME
TO EARNINGS BEFORE TAX



2003 2004 2005 Q1 2005 Q1 2006
ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL
-------- --------- -------- -------- --------

Total Regional Income 508 654 620 174 181
Corporate Costs (36) (49) (72) (16) (26)
Interest expense & amortization of debt discounts & fees (40) (74) (203) (56) (51)
Unrealized gains due to changes in the fair value
of derivatives 20 77 140 19 1
Depreciation & amortization (222) (246) (230) (59) (58)
Litigation settlement - net of insurance recoveries - - (40) - -
Impairment charges on long lived assets (4) (75) (7) - -
Adjustment to eliminate proportional consolidation (36) (41) (36) (10) (8)
Restructuring (charges) recoveries (8) (20) (10) 2 (1)
Gain (loss) on disposal of fixed assets & businesses 28 5 17 1 (14)
Gains on corporate derivative instruments & exchange items - - 45 2 4
Income before provision for taxes on income & minority
interests' share (Earnings Before Tax) 210 231 224 57 28


Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 19


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

RECONCILIATION OF REGIONAL INCOME
TO EARNINGS BEFORE TAX



2006 LOW 2006 HIGH 2007 LOW 2007 HIGH
ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE
-------- --------- -------- ---------

Total Regional Income 480 498 575 625
Corporate Costs (120) (110) (80) (70)
Interest expense & amortization of debt discounts & fees (204) (204) (180) (175)
Unrealized losses due to changes in the fair value
of derivatives (131) (131) - -
Depreciation & amortization (238) (238) (235) (235)
Litigation settlement - net of insurance recoveries - - - -
Impairment charges on long lived assets - - - -
Adjustment to eliminate proportional consolidation (45) (45) (45) (45)
Restructuring (charges) recoveries (13) (10) - -
Gain (loss) on disposal of fixed assets & businesses (14) - - -
Gains on corporate derivative instruments & exchange items - - - -
Income before provision for taxes on income (loss) &
minority interests' share (Earnings Before Tax) (285) (240) 35 100


Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 20


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

RECONCILIATION OF NET CASH FROM
OPERATING ACTIVITIES TO FREE CASH FLOW



2003 2004 2005 Q1 2005 Q1 2006
ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL
-------- --------- -------- --------- ---------

Net cash provided by operating activities 444 208 449 110 95
Dividends - (4) (34) (7) (7)
Capital Expenditures (189) (165) (178) (25) (21)
Premiums paid to purchase derivative instruments - - (57) (10) -
Net proceeds from settlement of derivative instruments - - 148 19 71
Free Cash Flow 255 39 328 87 138


Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 21


[LOGO OF NOVELIS]

RECONCILIATION OF NET CASH FROM
OPERATING ACTIVITIES TO FREE CASH FLOW



2006 LOW 2006 HIGH 2007 LOW 2007 HIGH
ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE
-------- --------- -------- ---------

Net cash provided by operating activities 108 136 315 350
Dividends (31) (31) (10) (10)
Capital Expenditures (115) (110) (175) (165)
Premiums paid to purchase derivative instruments (2) (5) 0 0
Net proceeds from settlement of derivative instruments 190 210 20 25
Free Cash Flow 150 200 150 200


Sept. 29, 2006 (C) Novelis Inc. 2006 22